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What New Hampshire’s Primary Could Mean for Maine Caucuses

Allegra Boverman
/
New Hampshire Public Radio
Voting signs in Hollis, New Hampshire, on Primary Day, Feb. 9, 2016.

It’s a big day in Maine’s neighbor state of New Hampshire as voters make their choices in the Republican and Democratic presidential races.

Fred Bever is there in Manchester, and he and Nora Flaherty discussed the New Hampshire race, and what it could lead to for Maine’s nominating caucuses next month.

Nora: It must be exciting there.

Fred: Indeed. For people who pay attention to U.S. politics, New Hampshire at this time every fourth year is the place to be.

Nora: So once the smoke clears in New Hampshire, what’s Maine’s role?

Fred: Maine is a caucus state, so instead of heading to the polls to mark a secret ballot, party members get together to talk about their choices. Under varying procedural rules, they award delegates based on town-by-town or region-by-region results. The caucuses can give a leg up to candidates with strong ideological messages, whose supporters tend to be more passionate than more moderate voters — and more likely to turnout for the often lengthy proceedings.

I spoke about it with Anthony Corrado, a political scientist at Colby College. He says that Sanders could benefit from the Maine caucus. In some of the upcoming voting, Clinton is seen to have an edge in delegate-rich southern and western states where she is popular with African-American voters. So Sanders, he says, might follow a strategy similar to one former Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis employed after the New Hampshire primary in 1988.

“And he outlined his four-corners strategy, saying that ‘I am planning to do well in Massachusetts, Washington state and Texas on the big super Tuesday and use that as my next launch pad,’” Corrado says. “So that if the Sanders campaign is able to do that with states like the New England states of Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont, adding to that Minnesota, Colorado, then you start to be able to see how he can make the case for how he is going to proceed to the nomination.”

And I can tell you that both Democratic candidates are making a credible play for Maine, with paid staff on the ground and endorsements coming out. Sanders has offices in Portland and Bangor already, and more than a dozen staffers coming in. U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, meanwhile, is lending some of her staff to the Clinton campaign in Maine.

Nora: What about the Republicans?

Fred: GOP officials first off are aiming to make good after logistical issues weakened the party’s caucus results last time out, when a snowstorm made it impossible for some people to get to their local meetings. That’s what Phil Harriman, a former lawmaker and conservative commentator, told me.

“I think the Republican party has learned from that mistake,” he says. “I think they are much better organized from the top down.”

Harriman says the Maine caucus is an opportunity for candidates who have specific attributes that can appeal in Maine — to faith-based conservatives, say, or supporters of Gov. Paul LePage.

“Perhaps someone like Trump will suggest that Maine is not that important to his bigger picture, his momentum, his sort of gravitas in the media,” Harriman says. “Whereas someone like Cruz, Chris Christie of course who endorsed Gov. LePage for his re-election, and now Gov. LePage is returning the favor with his run for president, that could be enough to entice them to participate.”

And, as Harriman notes, it’s relatively cheap to buy television and other advertising in Maine.

Nora: So if our TVs start filling up with political messages, we can’t say we weren’t warned.

This interview was edited for clarity

A Columbia University graduate, Fred began his journalism career as a print reporter in Vermont, then came to Maine Public in 2001 as its political reporter, as well as serving as a host for a variety of Maine Public Radio and Maine Public Television programs. Fred later went on to become news director for New England Public Radio in Western Massachusetts and worked as a freelancer for National Public Radio and a number of regional public radio stations, including WBUR in Boston and NHPR in New Hampshire.
Nora is originally from the Boston area but has lived in Chicago, Michigan, New York City and at the northern tip of New York state. Nora began working in public radio at Michigan Radio in Ann Arbor and has been an on-air host, a reporter, a digital editor, a producer, and, when they let her, played records.