A telephone survey earlier this month by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling shows Republican Mary Mayhew leading Sen. Susan Collins by more than 10 points in a head-to-head race for the Republican nomination for governor.
Several Maine political scientists say the poll points out a problem for Collins, but warn that it's still very early in the game – if there’s a “game” at all.
There are any number of reasons to be wary of early polls. First, the primary is not until next June, and Collins has not actually said that she will run. That has not lessened interest in the race for governor that's already spawned 11 announced candidates. In addition to Mayhew, there are six Democrats, two Greens, an independent, and a Libertarian.
University of Maine political scientist Mark Brewer says it's early in the political season and some GOP voters polled may have been more interested in sending a message to Collins that they are not happy with her votes on issues such as the Affordable Care Act, and not actually indicating how they would vote in a GOP primary.
“A lot of them say they will not vote for Susan Collins,” said Brewer. “We see here Susan Collins versus someone else - 28 percent for the senator, 62 percent for someone else.”
Brewer says that the poll does suggest that Collins has problems with the Republican base even though she recently was named the second most popular United States senator in the country. Brewer says all polls must be weighed based on the methodology used to determine the sample and how it is structured. But even with those and other caveats, Brewer has no doubt Collins would win the election for governor, if she could survive a primary.
Jim Melcher, a political scientist at UMaine Farmington, agrees.
“She clearly has some issues with some people on her right flank,” Melcher said. “A lot of people have thought her being elected governor would just be a matter of her announcing the race and the waters would part. And I think she would certainly still be the favorite in a general election, but she has to get through the primary.”
Both Melcher and Brewer say the poll, which has Collins at 33 percent to Mayhew’s 44 percent, reflects the continuing polarization of politics in Maine, and the nation. A survey this spring found that just under 50 percent of Mainers approve of the job governor LePage has been doing, but this poll of just Republicans produced an approval rating of nearly 80 percent.
They also warn that the primary is still a long way off, and that a lot can happen in that time to change voters’ minds.
This story was originally published Aug. 8, 2017 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
