Three recent polls show Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump in a tight race with Hillary Clinton in Maine. The surveys have generated some national buzz because a Republican presidential candidate has not won here in 30 years, and Maine has never split its four electoral votes.
The polls may highlight an issue that Trump is hoping to exploit.
The results of the three polls are wildly inconsistent. In one, Trump has a commanding lead over Clinton in the 2nd Congressional District. In another, the two candidates are in a dead heat in that rural, more conservative portion of the state. Clinton leads statewide in all three, but in one survey by Colby College and the Boston Globe, Trump trails by just three points — within the margin of error.
Political commentators are quibbling over each poll’s methodology and accuracy. But everyone appears to agree on one thing: Maine, typically and reliably blue in presidential elections, is shaping up to be a battleground state this year.
“I think anyone who believes that Hillary Clinton will win this in a walk, probably fundamentally misunderstands just how restive the electorate is,” says Michael Cuzzi, a senior vice president for VOX Global who has worked for a number of Democratic campaigns, including former U.S. Rep. Tom Allen.
Cuzzi says Trump’s strong showing in Maine was foreshadowed by Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Both are unconventional politicians and both have made mistakes that would typically hobble other candidates or elected officials, but neither has paid an electoral price for their unorthodox style.
Local and national media have repeatedly attempted to diagnose the phenomenon. They’ve settled on theories about rural white voters’ economic anxiety and their concerns about changing demographics. The demographic change led the U.S. Census Bureau to forecast eight years ago that racial minority groups will make up a majority of the U.S. population by 2042.
Cuzzi agrees with those theories, but he believes the analysis often leaves out a key issue.
“The Democratic Party has really forgotten how to talk to white, working-class voters,” he says.
Cuzzi isn’t alone in this assessment. In July, Vice President Joe Biden told MSNBC host Joe Scarborough that Democrats have done the right thing for those voters, but they’re not talking to them. Biden also described his instructions to his staff on how he wanted them to interact with constituents when he was U.S. senator.
“In the very beginning, make sure that they know that I know what they’re concerned about. That I know what they’re problem is,” he says, “whether I agree with them or not about the solution, let them know I know what’s worrying them and that it’s not illegitimate that they’re worried.”
Cuzzi says Democrats have correctly focused on new constituencies, especially minorities, which has allowed them to court new voters and dominate urban, more affluent regions of the country. But he says the strategy has come at the expense of what was once Democrats’ core constituency — and a major constituency in once solid blue Maine.
“If you are going after a population that is more diverse, is more urban, is more highly educated, you are by definition leaving out the vast majority of the voters here in Maine,” he says.
Cuzzi believes Trump and Gov. Paul LePage are filling what he described as the messaging hole. That may help explain why Trump has visited the state three times and why LePage has been re-elected despite numerous controversies. And that, along with the recent polls, may also explain why Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, is making an unexpected visit to the state on Thursday.
It’s Kaine’s first trip to Maine as a vice presidential hopeful. Clinton has not been to the state since holding a small rally here nearly a year ago.
