Maine elections officials are reporting a significant spike in the number of requests for absentee ballots. In fact, it’s possible that more than one-third of all ballots cast next week will be absentee.
Four years ago in the hotly contested race for Governor, nearly 140,000 Mainers requested absentee ballots. In the 2016 presidential election, over one-quarter of one million Mainers sought to vote absentee. But for midterm elections like this year’s, turnout does not generally reache such levels. So far, though, Mainers have requested over 173,000 absentee ballots, with some requests yet to be counted.
Secretary of State Matt Dunlap says that he thinks the state is on track to see a robust number of absentee votes this year.
“Last couple of cycles we have been knocking on the door of about 35 percent turnout by absentee ballot, and I have no reason to think that this year will be any different,” he says.
Maine allows voters to use the absentee ballot process for any reason, including convenience, but Dunlap says that heightened voter interest may be driving the increase in requests.
UMaine political science professor Mark Brewer says that the millions of dollars of spending that have gone into the contests for Governor and the Second Congressional District may be spurring voter interest, and that may be part of the increase in absentee ballot requests.
“Or is it more, kind of, a national-something that is driving this, whether that be unhappiness with the President or something else,” Brewer says. “That is the interesting question. My guess is it’s probably both.”
In addition, candidates and their political parties have also been encouraging early voting, says University of Southern Maine political science professor Ron Schmidt.
“The likely voters are paying closer attention and are more energized,” says Schmidt. “The parties, particularly, I think, the Democratic party has really been pushing people to vote early and vote absentee, and that suggests their message is getting out there.”
Schmidt says given the apparent closeness of those particular races, the increase in absentees could play a role in determining the winner, particularly in the Second District where ranked-choice voting is in effect. But Brewer cautions that requesting a ballot is only the first step in the absentee process.
“It could be pointing us in the direction at a higher turnout, although, just because an absentee is requested obviously it doesn’t mean it will be turned in,” Brewer says. “But, I think it is definitely pointing to the direction of a stronger turnout.”
Data compiled by the Secretary of State’s office indicates that most absentee ballots are cast. For example, two years ago nearly 265,000 ballots were requested and over 258,000 were counted.
Voters have up until 8:00 p.m. election night to turn in absentee ballots.
Originally published 5:06 p.m. Oct. 31, 2018.
